Alliance in Turmoil: NDA Crumbles in Tamil Nadu as OPS and Dhinakaran Walk Out

The political landscape of Tamil Nadu has entered a fresh phase of churn with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) losing two key regional leaders—former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam (OPS) and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) leader T.T.V. Dhinakaran. Their exits have created turbulence in an alliance already struggling to consolidate its presence in a state dominated by the DMK–AIADMK bipolar system.

OPS’s Walkout: A Long Time Coming

OPS, once a loyal lieutenant of late Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa, has been in a prolonged tussle with the AIADMK leadership since Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) consolidated his hold over the party. OPS is now expected to explore alliances that give him independent space, potentially joining hands with smaller parties or new outfits.

Dhinakaran’s Exit: A Blow to BJP’s Minority Strategy

T.T.V. Dhinakaran, nephew of V.K. Sasikala, has carved a niche with his AMMK as a platform for disenchanted AIADMK voters. 1 .His decision to leave the NDA weakens BJP’s attempt to consolidate anti-DMK votes through a broad coalition of smaller caste- and community-based parties. Dhinakaran signaled he would chart his “own course,” but political analysts note that he, like OPS, has maintained communication channels with actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

Enter Vijay’s TVK: The New X-Factor

The TVK, launched earlier this year by Tamil superstar Vijay, is emerging as a potential alternative to the AIADMK and DMK. With a strong fan base and the ability to attract first-time voters, TVK is seen as an attractive option for leaders like OPS and Dhinakaran, who are looking for fresh relevance. While no formal alliance has been announced, both have hinted at aligning with Vijay’s party, a move that could reshape equations ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.

BJP’s Dilemma

For the BJP, which has been seeking to expand in Tamil Nadu under the leadership of K. Annamalai, these exits are a setback. The party had hoped to present the NDA as a formidable anti-DMK bloc, combining AIADMK’s base with regional splinter groups. While AIADMK remains in the NDA fold, OPS and Dhinakaran’s departure reduces BJP’s leverage among smaller factions.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah reportedly downplayed the developments, insisting that all parties opposed to the DMK would eventually unite under one umbrella. However, party insiders admit that managing regional allies while pushing BJP’s own brand of politics in Tamil Nadu is proving a difficult balancing act.

AIADMK’s Balancing Act

For AIADMK, led by EPS, the exits of OPS and Dhinakaran from the NDA are double-edged. On the one hand, it reduces intra-party and alliance friction. On the other, it creates a vacuum that could be filled by TVK or other new entrants, threatening to split the anti-DMK vote bank further. EPS has so far refrained from direct comment, but AIADMK cadres have expressed relief at “cleaning up” the alliance.

What This Means for 2026 Elections

With state polls scheduled in 2026, Tamil Nadu’s political arena is witnessing early realignments:

DMK under Chief Minister M.K. Stalin remains dominant, buoyed by welfare schemes and a strong cadre network.

AIADMK seeks to regroup under EPS but risks losing ground to defectors.

BJP is pushing for relevance but faces hurdles in forging unity.

TVK, backed by Vijay’s star power, may emerge as a kingmaker, especially if leaders like OPS and Dhinakaran join hands with it.

Observers believe that the NDA’s cracks highlight the fragile nature of coalition politics in Tamil Nadu, where loyalty is often shaped by caste equations, leadership tussles, and new political experiments. The coming months will determine whether OPS and Dhinakaran remain independent players or consolidate around Vijay’s TVK, potentially altering the state’s political future.